ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.4.4 GEOGRAPHICAL PERSPECTIVE OF THE SUPPLY SOURCE PRICE DIVERSIFICATION In order to give a geographical view of the supply source price diversification for each country, an aggregated index was defined as the number of import sources influencing the gas bill of each country. Influence of the indigenous production is not considered here. This diversification should not be interpreted as a physical ac- cess to the sources. For most of the countries the supply price diversification remains stable across the time horizon with a significant reaction (SSPDi above twenty percent) to three sources notwithstanding the embedded diversification of LNG. These homogenous results are influenced by the assumption of perfect market conditions and non-sim- ultaneity of the diversification. The countries being influenced by less than three sources are: \\ Portugal and Spain with a significant reaction to LNG and Algerian gas \\ Greece with a significant reaction to LNG and Russian gas \\ Baltic countries, Bulgaria and FYROM with a significant reaction to Russian gas Only Italy, Slovenia and Croatia are significantly influenced by four sources. The considered import capacity from Libyan and Caspian sources is not sufficient to reach the twenty percent threshold. Under the High scenario, the commissioning of LNG projects in the Baltic region and South-Eastern Europe improves the situation with a better reaction to LNG prices. The conjunction of new interconnection projects and lower European de- mand in the Grey scenario will further improve the diversification of the less inter- connected regions such as the Baltic, South-Eastern Europe and Iberian Peninsula. The commissioning of Non-FID projects enables the further spread of Algerian gas influence to Switzerland and France as well as Caspian gas influence in South-East- ern Europe. Under the Grey scenario the combined effects of a lower gas demand level and a better interconnection enables the influence of Russian and Norwegian gas to spread as far as the Iberian Peninsula. Cyprus shows the same supply price diversification as Greece as the marginal price of its production is set by this downstream market. The results of this diversification assessment differ from the analysis of supply diver- sification in TYNDP 2013 because they are now based on a price approach with a 20% reaction threshold which is not equivalent to a 20% physical supply share of the source.

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015