ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.4.2 SUPPLY SOURCE PRICE DEPENDENCE (SSPDe)

The SSPDe indicator measures the exposure of each country, as the minimum impact on its gas bill, to the price increase of an import source. This approach is based on marginal gas prices and therefore a country can be dependent on a source, from a price perspective, which is not directly physically connected. This is due to the impact of those supply sources on interconnected markets. However, a well-integrated gas infrastructure is a pre-condition to mitigate the exposure to the increase of the price of one supply source. The dependency of a country represents the extent to which it cannot avoid to mirror the price increase of any import source. Each supply source is tested one-by-one. The higher the indicator is, the higher the exposure to a price increase. A country having a SSPDe of forty percent towards Norwegian gas means that if Norwegian price increases by ten percent then the gas bill of that country would increase by four percent. The following graphs show the magnitude of the price dependency of each country toward each source cumulated on the same stacked bar. A one hundred percent value indicates full exposure to the price increase of a source, therefore the stack graph can go beyond one hundred percent in case of a dependence toward sever- al sources. Results of the price dependence are very similar to those of the physical depend- ence. A small price dependence on Norwegian and Algerian gas appears in 2025 Green Low scenario due to the increasing import requirements. Under the Low scenario, the price dependency increases across Europe over time as a result of increasing demand combined with decreasing indigenous production and Norwegian supply. Every EU Member States is becoming more dependent on Russian gas at the exception of Portugal, Spain and Greece who are increasingly dependent on LNG. Dependency on other sources increases when import require- ments reach a very high level under the Green Scenario in 2025. The commissioning of Non-FID projects will strongly mitigate the dependency of most of the countries. After 2025 the main mitigation effect results from the consid- eration of the new supply sources even if their positive impact recede in 2035 especially under the Green scenario.

\\ See figures 6.27 and 6.28 on pages 170–173

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