ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

6.3.2 CAPACITY-BASED INDICATORS

The capacity-based indicators focus exclusively on the infrastructure component of system resilience. These indicators consider the quantity and diversification of entry capacity and not the availability of supply.

6.3.2.1 Import Route Diversification (IRD)

The Import Route Diversification indicator focuses on how balanced the import capacity of a given Zone is. For example, a Zone is better diversified, from an import infrastructure perspective, if its entry capacity is equally split between four borders rather than being one predominant. The indicator formula is similar to the Herfind- ahl-Hirschman-Index (HHI) and hence, the lower the value, the better the diversifi- cation. Figure 6.18 shows the evolution of the IRD indicator. There is no defined threshold for this indicator, hence three ranges have been defined from an equal distribution of the year 2015 i.e. one third of the Zones had an IRD below 3,585 (33-percentile), one third between 3,585 and 6,153 and one third above 6,153 (66 percentile). The IRD indicator is only linked to infrastructure. The commissioning of FID projects is not sufficient to improve the situation of less diversified countries. The implemen- tation of Non-FID projects would ensure that all countries, with the exception of Sweden, FYROM and Cyprus, at least reached the intermediate range. The N-1 indicator is calculated for each country and derives from Regulation (EC) 994/2010 on Security of Supply. It focuses on the peak demand situation with the loss of the single largest infrastructure. It differs from the original indicator calculat- ed by the Competent Authorities as it has to be: \\ computed on a twenty-one year time horizon \\ consistent with the capacity used in the Report (application of the lesser of rule to the capacity level on each side of a flange) The higher the indicator value, the better the resilience. Figures 6.19 and 6.20 show the evolution of the N-1 indicator for each country for both Green and Grey scenarios. For both Green and Grey scenarios, the 2015 – 2020 evolution shows that FID-projects improve the situation in Scandinavia. At the same time, increasing demand in Poland reduces resilience. The implementation of Non-FID projects together with additional indigenous production will largely improve the situation across Europe and especially in South-Eastern Europe. Beyond 2020, the situation remains stable. \\ See figure 6.18 on page 155

6.3.2.2 N-1 for ESW-CBA

\\ See figures 6.19 and 6.20 on pages 156–157

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015