ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

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6.3 Infrastructure resilience

This part of the assessment carried out by ENTSOG focuses on the ability of the European gas system to meet the supply demand balance under stressed situations. Such stress can result from climatic conditions (higher demand) or supply unavailability (source or infrastructure).

6.3.1 DISRUPTED DEMAND AND REMAINING FLEXIBILITY

Unlike previous TYNDPs, the Report does not identify which projects might directly mitigate the risks of demand disruption or low Remaining Flexibility. This change results from the new role of the TYNDP which is the basis for the selection of Project of Common Interest. The Report should not define the benefits of a project under a single criterion and the project specific assessment, defined by the TEN-E Regula- tion, will cover multiple criteria for assessing each candidate Project of Common Interest.

6.3.1.1 Evolution of demand disruption at aggregated European level

The following graphs show the disrupted demand under the two peak situations con- sidered (1-day Design Case and 2-week Uniform Risk) at the aggregated European level for each Global Context. The level of disruption is directly influenced by the as- sumed eighty percent UGS deliverability under periods of high daily demand. Since 2007 1) , storage has always had a sufficient volume in February to ensure a ninety percent deliverability rate with the exception of the February 2012 cold spell, when the withdrawal rate was limited to seventy percent.

1,200 GWh/d

Green Scenario

Grey Scenario

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Low High Low High Low High Low High 2020 2025 2030 2035

2015

Figure 6.11: Disrupted demand (daily value) on the peak day and 2-week Uniform Risk average day. Green scenario (left) and Grey scenario (right)

1) This date refers to the start date of historical data on AGSI+ platform of GSE

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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