ENTSOG TYNDP 2015
This flexibility is very high in 2015 but goes reducing along the time horizon under the Green scenario. This indicates a tighter supply situation and less flexibility in the supply mix. This evolution starts later under the Grey scenario where lower demand requires less imports. The flexibility of large sources is also lower under the Design Case compared to the Average day despite the contribution of UGS. Both for the Average day and the 1-day Design Case, the commissioning of Non-FID projects together with the connection of new sources help to maintain a high flexibility of the gas supply mix. For the rest of the assessment chapter only the maximization of the UGS scenario was used. In respect of investment gap identification, this represents a conservative approach when considering the uncertainty around peak deliverability of import sources in the long term.
6.2.3 EVOLUTION OF USE OF UGS ON SEASONAL BASIS
Following graphs represent the share of the European aggregated UGS working gas volume (WGV) being injected and withdrawn during the year according to the simulations and driven by the seasonal swing of demand. Such volume should not be confused with the highest level reached by UGS over the year. As the model does not consider either the anticipation of a prolonged security of supply crisis or daily variability of power generation, the use of storage is only driven by cover of the sea- sonal swing and therefore only one annual cycle is considered. In addition sufficient gas should be present in the storages in order to ensure sufficient deliverability in case of peak demand or supply stress.
%
%
Green Scenario
Grey Scenario
100
100
80
80
60
60
25
25
40
40
18
17
22
20
22
24
18
18
20
20
24
18
21
22
23
22
20
20
32
33
30
30
30
28
28
28
29
29
25
25
23
21
21
22
22
21
0
0
Low High Low High Low High Low High 2020 2025 2030 2035
Low High Low High Low High Low High 2020 2025 2030 2035
2015
2015
Not-Used
Not-Used
Used under UGS minimization Additional use under UGS maximization
Used under UGS minimization Additional use under UGS maximization
Figure 6.10: Seasonal variation of the WGV (% of capacity). Green scenario (left) and Grey scenario (right)
The graphs present the use of the WGV considering two UGS scenarios, where all seasonal swing is met by UGS (UGS maximization) and another where most of the swing is met by imports (UGS minimization). The commissioning of UGS projects by 2020 could result in a decrease of the use of each individual UGS facility as the need for storage will be spread across more facilities. Beyond 2020 the use of storage would grow under the FID scenario as a result of the combined effect of no new UGS projects, decreasing indigenous production and no additional supplies such as Caspian gas. Small differences between the two Global Contexts are driven by higher relative seasonal swing in Grey and less competition for cheap supply due to overall lower demand in Grey, which could be stored in UGS.
144 |
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
Made with FlippingBook