ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

National Production (NP) Caspian area (AZ)

Algeria (DZ) Libya (LY)

LNG Norway (NO)

Russia (RU) UGS

2015 Low

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 Low

2020 High

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2025 Low

2025 High

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2035 Low

2035 High

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

\\ peak condition (1-day Design Case), the bars represent the range of use of the sources, the lower limits are set as the use of the sources under the expensive price configuration and UGS maximization and the upper limits are set as the use of the sources under the cheap price configuration and UGS minimization This analysis of import sources shows that European gas system can take very high benefit from any source if its price decreases (the upper limit of the bar is very close from the dot). The only cases where the maximum potential scenario of a source is not reached are: \\ For LNG in Design Case where the simultaneous delivery of all European terminals at maximum daily send-out capacity is slightly limited by gas infrastructure but Non-FID projects enable to reach a 95% load \\ For LNG in 2035 for the Green scenario the offtake of LNG imports at the level of the maximum supply requires the commissioning of some Non-FID projects \\ Under the Grey Scenario the lower demand level makes more difficult the reach of the maximum potential scenario especially: – – Algerian gas in 2020 where this source are in competition with less elastic LNG in the two directly importing countries – – In 2020 the additional indigenous production under the High infrastructure scenario (Romanian Black Sea, shale and biomethane) slightly hinders the maximization of the largest sources (LNG and Russian gas) The width of the bars also illustrates the flexibility in the use of each supply source.

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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