ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

National Production (NP) Caspian area (AZ)

Algeria (DZ) Libya (LY)

LNG Norway (NO)

Russia (RU) UGS

2015 Low

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 Low

2020 High

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2025 Low

2025 High

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2035 Low

2035 High

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

DC UGS max DC UGS min Supply shares

0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Figure 6.5:  Supply shares under the 1-day Design Case – Green and Grey scenario

The graphs for Average day indicate the increasing predominance of Russian gas and LNG, even when more expensive than other sources, as they have to be used at a significant level. The additional supplies (Caspian gas, Romanian Black Sea, Cyprus national production, together with shale and biogas) under the High scenar- io can significantly mitigate the increasing dependence on Russian gas and LNG. This confirms the findings of the supply chapter where the increasing need for imports can only be met by Russian gas and LNG, which have increasing availabil- ity over the time horizon, when Norwegian imports are decreasing and other import sources are too low. This trend also appears on the graphs for the 1-day Design Case where it can also be noted the increasing minimum share in the coverage of peak demand along the time horizon. Under the High infrastructure scenarios additional supplies enable a lower minimum share of UGS in the coverage of the peak demand. The next set of graphs illustrates the range of use of each import source compared to their minimum and maximum potential scenario under: \\ annual condition (Average day): – – the dots represent the deliverability of the sources as a percentage of their peak deliverability – – the bars represent the range of use of the sources, the lower limits are set as the use of the sources under the expensive price configuration and the upper limits are set as the use of the sources under the cheap price configuration

138 |

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015