ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

MARKET INTEGRATION, A CONSTANT CHALLENGE

2015 Low

2015 Low

The TYNDP assessment confirms a predominant position of Russian gas and LNG supplies under the Green scenario even with all other sources at high deliverability. This situation could be improved with the commissioning of new infrastructure and the connection of new supplies. The following graphs compare the minimum supply share of Russian gas and LNG between the Low and High Infrastructure scenarios along the time horizon.

35 %

35 %

LNG

RU

28

28

21

21

14

14

7

7

2035 Low

2035 High

0

0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

min Low

min High

min Low

min High

Figure 6: Evolution of the supply share of Russian gas and LNG according to the Low and High Infrastructure scenarios

TYNDP findings show that regions not sufficiently integrated often suffer from a lack of supply security and competition. This is especially the case for the Baltic region, Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, where the development of infrastruc- tures has been unsufficient due to the historical gas supply from Russia, and also for South-Western Europe where LNG has a significant role. The latter case is not an issue in terms of security of supply, but in terms of exposure to the global LNG price.

2015 Low 203

2015 Low 203 High

2035 Low Towards RU supplies Towards LNG supplies

2035 High 15% < CSSD < 25% 15% < CSSD < 25%

CSSD < 5% CSSD < 5%

5% < CSSD < 15% 5% < CSSD < 15%

25% < CSSD < 50% 25% < CSSD < 50%

CSSD > 50% CSSD > 50%

Figure 7: Cooperative Supply Source Dependence towards Russian (red) and LNG (blue) supplies

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

13