ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Applying these percentages to the LNG exports per area, and assuming that “Flexi- ble” LNG is delivered to Europe, the maximum potential supply scenario for LNG is as follows:

SPLIT OF THE MAXIMUM SUPPLY SCENARIO PER PRODUCING AREA

bcma

2014

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

ATLANTIC BASIN

79

84

107

131

154

177

MIDDLE EAST

48

48

49

49

50

50

PACIFIC BASIN

7

8

10

12

14

17

TOTAL EU

134

140

166

192

218

244

Table 5.15: Split of the maximum supply scenario per producing area

Intermediate LNG scenario

The intermediate supply scenario for LNG is calculated as the average between the minimum and the maximum.

Minimum LNG scenario

The potential minimum LNG scenario has been defined on the assumption that current low levels of LNG imports cannot be sustained under a scenario of decreas- ing indigenous production and either increasing or sustained gas demand, and would not be consistent with increasing LNG regasification capacity. This scenario has been defined from the average LNG imports in 2011, 2012 and 2013, and is kept constant for the future.

POTENTIAL MINIMUM LNG SCENARIO

Year

LNG imports (GWh/d)

Average 2011 – 2013

2011

2,427

2012

1,689

1,744 GWh/d

2013

1,205

Table 5.16: Potential minimum LNG scenario

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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 

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