The range defined by the potential import scenarios for LNG reflects the particular- ly high uncertainty in the level of LNG supplies to Europe.
Maximum LNG scenario
The maximum supply scenario has been defined on the assumption of an increas- ing global LNG market, with Europe being a premium market. This means that European gas prices are comparatively higher than the price in competing markets and so they can attract LNG supplies. The methodology used to define the maximum supply scenario applies the split between different current destination clauses (Europe / non-Europe / flexible) to the projected evolution of the LNG exports between 2014 and 2035. Europe is assumed to receive the LNG when the destination market is Europe as well as when the LNG is defined as flexible. The projection of future world LNG supplies in 2035 (BP Energy Outlook 2030) is 830 bcma. The breakdown of this value per area is calculated by applying the following production share per area derived from the ExxonMobil Energy Outlook 2040 report: 30% Atlantic basin, 20% Middle East, 50% Pacific basin. The table below contains the LNG production per area according to the existing contracts in 2014 (intermediate years have been interpolated).
EVOLUTION OF THE LNG EXPORTS PER AREA 2014–2035
Table 5.13: Evolution of the LNG exports per area 2014 – 2035
The LNG production split in the following table is derived from the shares of the destination clauses of the existing contracts as in 2014.
SPLIT OF THE LNG EXPORTS DESTINATION BY AREA
Table 5.14: Split of the LNG exports destination by area