When gas demand does not show a clear evolution, the requirements for gas imports are driven by the decreasing indigenous production. Under the current perspective the induced need for additional imports is likely to be met by Russian gas and LNG, especially under the Green scenario. In such a situation Europe would be in a challenging position resulting in a reduced market power. Other sources are likely to stay at the current level (pipe gas from Algeria and Libya) or would only have a limited influence (Caspian gas) in absence of stronger market signals. Norway is a very particular case as there is a potential to deliver significant volumes from the Barents Sea gas fields from the mid 2020s. Nevertheless, the investments connecting this production to the existing European gas network is not yet decided and is in competition with potential LNG developments as a result of the lack of long term attractiveness of the continent. Other producers (e. g. North Africa and Middle-East) are facing the same challenges. Appropriate signals from Europe would enable the delivery of new supply to Europe improving both its energy security and its competitiveness while supporting high environmental standards.
Maximum (High infra. Sc)
Maximum (Low infra. Sc)
Intermediate (Low infra. Sc)
Minimum (Low infra. Sc)
Figure 5: Comparison of gas demand and gas supply scenarios