ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

The TYNDP assessment indicates that over the next two decades the evolution of gas demand is likely to be driven mostly by the use of gas in the power generation sector. Therefore, most gas demand outlooks evolve in a narrow range which depends on the equilibrium between gas, coal and CO 2 prices. The most divergent scenarios are the “DGENER trends to 2050” and the “IEA 450 S” where environ- mental targets are achieved with a higher level of RES and a better efficiency. This overall slow increase of gas demand (0.4% per annum on the next twenty-one years) hides a heterogeneous situation among countries. This is particularly the case in the Green scenario due to very different national strategy to achieve environmen- tal targets.

GREY

GREY

> -50%

0%

> 50%

> -50%

0%

> 50%

> -50%

0%

> 50%

Figure 4: Evolution of total annual gas demand on 2015 – 2035 period

(Gas demand for electricity is based on data from ENTSO-E SO&AF 2014 – 2030)

ENTSOG is now deriving the level of gas demand for power generation based on ENTSO-E and price data. The seasonal swing is now modelled through the use of summer and winter cases. E NTSOG has kept the 1-day Design Case and the 2-week Uniform Risk Case representing the extreme situation to be covered by the Europe- an gas system.

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 | 11