ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Supply Scenarios Shah Deniz phase 1 production has already started and will remain stable and limited to regional markets. ENTSOG considers as potential Azeri supply for EU gas coming from phase 2 starting as of 2019. \\ Maximum Azeri pipeline gas scenario As in TYNDP 2013, this scenario is based on the assumption of part of the 6bcma (66TWh/y) which were originally assigned to Turkey ending up in EU. Therefore, maximum potential of Azeri gas would be 16 bcma (176 TWh/y). Two ramp-up phases have been considered. A first one with the start of exports in 2019 and reaching the 10bcma by 2022, and a second one, that starts by 2025 and would reach 16bcma by 2028. \\ Intermediate Azeri pipeline gas scenario This scenario considers the 10bcma (110TWh/y) for the EU market as it was done in TYNDP 2013. A ramp-up phase has been applied to gradually increase the gas imports from 2019 to 2022. \\ Minimum Azeri pipeline gas scenario With the final decision of the aforementioned transit route, the likelihood of receiv- ing some gas can now be considered sure. Hence, this minimum scenario has been set at 80% of the intermediate one.

16 bcma

TWh/y

160

12

120

8

80

4

40

0

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Maximum

Intermediate

Minimum

Figure 5.49: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Azerbaijan

POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM AZERBAIJAN

GWh/d

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

MAXIMUM

0

119

315

415

475

INTERMEDIATE

0

119

297

297

297

MINIMUM

0

95

238

238

238

Table 5.10: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Azerbaijan

106 |

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015