Currently the EU is not importing Caspian gas. It is foreseen to become a new supply corridor at least at regional level. For the purpose of this Report it is considered to be the sum of the potential imports from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
Reserves Azerbaijan’s proven reserves amount to roughly 900 to 1,400bcm (9,900 to 15,400TWh). The vast majority of these reserves comes from the Shah Deniz field which turned Azerbaijan into a net exporter of natural gas in 2007. Besides that, gas is also produced from the Absheron and Umid fields. Within the last decade, domestic consumption has almost doubled. It will fur- ther increase as Azerbaijan continues to replace old oil-fired power plants with new combined cycle gas turbines. In 2011, around 70%of the 18bcm (197TWh) produced gas is for domestic use. A large part of Azeri gas is exported to Turkey. The South Caucasus Pipeline from Baku to Erzurum in Turkey is the main export line. Some volumes are also exported to Russia via the Gazi-Magomed-Mozdok Pipeline and to Iran via the Baku-Astara Pipeline. Shah Deniz Field The potential exports of Azeri gas to Europe are close- ly linked to the development of this field. Discovered in 1999, it holds approximately 1,000bcm (11,000TWh) of natural gas reserves and its development is under-
Figure 5.48: Azerbaijan's dry natural gas production and consumption 2001 – 2011 (Source EIA, country report from Azerbaijan, September 2013)
taken by a BP-led consortium. Gas production began in early 2007 and has in- creased since then. Gas is currently being produced under phase 1, which will see plateau production at around 9bcma (100TWh/y). Phase 2 will then add further 16 bcma (176 TWh/y) of gas production, with first deliveries in the beginning of 2019. Therefrom 6bcma (66 TWh/y) are basically foreseen for Turkey and 10bcma (110TWh/y) are foreseen for EU. According to recent information from the Shah Deniz partners a possible phase 3 has been agreed. Reserves of this phase are es- timated at 500bcm (5,500TWh), which would boost the fields total reserves to ap- proximately 1,700bcm 1) (18,700TWh). This phase would enable to maintain gas volumes at peak level of 25bcma (275TWh/y) for an extended period but there is still no final concept. As additional information is rare, ENTSOG’s interpretation of phase 3 is that, this phase would enable the complete field of Shah Deniz to hold an overall production of 25bcma. Phase 3 would then maintain the production level from previous phases. In recent months the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) projects took their Final Investment Decision. In combination with the already decided extension of the South Caucasus Pipeline, it is most likely that the gas of Shah Deniz phase 2 will reach Southern Europe markets via Turkey.