ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Supply Scenarios

ENTSOG scenarios consider the interlink between production, national demand and exports. It also covers the possible split between LNG and pipe gas exports. Remain- ing uncertainty around Libyan stability and its impact on gas exports were not con- sidered. \\ Maximum Libyan pipeline gas scenario This scenario has been calculated on the basis of the export capacity. The maximum scenario assumes a 95% load factor of the Greenstream pipeline (354 GWh/d).

\\ Intermediate Libyan pipeline gas scenario This scenario is the average of the maximum and minimum scenarios.

\\ Minimum Libyan pipeline gas scenario This scenario is based on Mott MacDonald’s report of 2010. According to its low case, the production potential ranges from 16 bcm (176 TWh) in 2015 to 20bcm (220 TWh) in 2030. The figures have been extrapolated until 2035. Total exports have been derived from this production scenario applying the minimum export vs. production ratio of the last eight years (34% according to the historical OPEC data). Then pipeline exports have been estimated at 97% of overall Libyan gas exports (based on BP Statistical report 2012).

12 bcma

TWh/y

120

9

90

6

60

3

30

0

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Maximum

Intermediate

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)

Figure 5.47: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Libya

POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM LIBYA

GWh/d

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

MAXIMUM

336

336

336

336

336

INTERMEDIATE

249

255

260

266

271

MINIMUM

162

173

184

195

206

Table 5.9: Libya pipeline gas potential scenarios

104 |

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015