ENTSOG TYNDP 2015

Supply scenarios ENTSOG scenarios consider the interlink between production, national demand and exports. It also covers the possible split between LNG and pipe gas exports. \\ Maximum Algerian pipeline gas scenario This scenario combines production projection from MEDPRO 1) , demand forecast from the Algerian Ministry of Energy and the evolution of the breakdown between pipeline and LNG exports according to Sonatrach prevision. According to MEDPRO the Algerian production could evolve from 89 bcma in 2013 to twice this figure (160bcma) by 2030. Production has been extrapolated up to 178bcma in 2035. Demand evolution follows the intermediate scenario of the Algerian authorities which ranges from 36bcm in 2013 to 64bcm in 2030. These figures have been extrapo- lated by ENTSOG up to 75bcm in 2035. The export potential is the difference be- tween these production and demand figures. The share of LNG in the exports is set at 43% in 2018 according to Sonatrach estimation. On the 2014–2018 period LNG share is interpolated starting from 2013 actual value (25%) and targeting 43%. Beyond 2018, the LNG share in Algerian exports is considered flat. \\ Intermediate Algerian pipeline gas scenario Compared to the maximum scenario, this one only differs in term of production projection. MEDPRO figures have been replaced by the ones of the New Policies scenario coming from the World Energy Outlook 2013 of the IEA where the Algerian natural gas production would reach 132bcm by 2034. \\ Minimum Algerian pipeline gas scenario Compared to the intermediate scenario, this one only differs in term of respective share of LNG and pipeline exports. Here Algeria exports mostly target the global LNG market. This translates into a 90% use of the liquefaction capacity estimated flat at 38bcma.

50 bcma

TWh/y

500

40

400

30

300

20

200

10

100

0

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Maximum

Intermediate

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)

Figure 5.42: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Algeria

POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM ALGERIA

GWh/d

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

MAXIMUM

1,241

1,342

1,519

1,559

1,559

INTERMEDIATE

996

1,033

1,045

1,001

965

MINIMUM

663

805

826

749

685

Table 5.8: Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Algeria

1) MEDPRO: Mediterranean Prospects, Outlook for Oil and Gas in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, October 2012, Manfred Hafner

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |

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