ENTSOG TYNDP 2015 - Annex F – Methodology

\\ The thermal gap (part of electricity demand to be covered by gas- and coal power generation) \\ The power generation capacities from gas and coal \\ The ranges of use and the average efficiencies of the above capacities. In order to strike the right balance between the number of cases and the robustness of the assessment, the Table 2 defines two combinations of Gas Demand scenario, Global Context and ENTSO-E Visions are considered in the ESW-CBA:

COMBINATION OF GAS DEMAND, GLOBAL CONTEXT AND ENTSO-E VISIONS COMBINATION GLOBAL CONTEXT GAS DEMAND

ENTSO-E VISION

Green

A

Green transition

1

Grey

B

Slow progress

2

Table 2.2: Combination of Gas Demand, Global Context and ENTSO-E Visions

The main features of selected ENTSO-E visions are defined in following table:

MAIN FEATURES OF ENTSO-E VISIONS

VISION 1 (SLOW PROGRESS)

VISION 3 (GREEN TRANSITION)

Poor

Favourable

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

ENERGY POLICIES AND R&D PLANS

National focus

NUCLEAR DECISION

National decision

Low

High

CO ² PRICES

High

Low

PRIMARY ENERGY PRICES

Low

High

ELECTRICITY DEMAND

As today

Potential partially used

DEMAND-RESPONSE

No commercial breakthrough

Commercial breakthrough with flexible charging

ELECTRICITY PLUG-IN VEHICLES

Not even spread across Europe

Not even spread across Europe

HEAT-PUMPS

Low

High

LEVEL OF BACK-UP GENERATION

CCS

Not commercially implemented

As planned today

Decentralised and in limited amount

STORAGE

SMART GRID SOLUTIONS

Partially implemented

Table 2.3: Main features of ENTSO-E Visions

2.4.2

Climatic cases

In order to capture the seasonality of the gas market different levels of gas demand and thermal gaps are considered along the year. These climatic cases and the asso- ciated levels of demand are defined as following: \\ Average Summer day: Total demand of an average summer divided by 183 as a proxy for the season \\ Average Winter day: Total demand of an average winter divided by 182 as a proxy for the season \\ 14-day Uniform Risk (14-UR): aggregation of the level of demand reached on 14 consecutive days once every twenty years in each country to capture the influence of a long cold spell on supply and especially storages \\ 1-day Design Case (1-DC): aggregation of the level of demand used for the design of the network in each country to capture maximum transported energy and ensure consistency with national regulatory frameworks.

Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 Annex F | 7