ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.3.6 CASE STUDY 3C/3D

CASE DESCRIPTION

c) 2020 d) 2030

Year

Peak Demand: Northern EU Average Winter: Rest of EU

Climatic conditions

Norwegian flows (Norpipe to DE)

Supply disruptions

c) Low d) PCI

Infrastructure level

Norwegian most expensive

Supply prices

CH>FRn bundled firm

Capacity

Table 7.6: Boundary conditions for case study 3c and 3d

To ease the comparability of results, also for this last case study the same approach has been followed adopting different climatic conditions across Europe and fully (bundled) firm capacity at Oltingue IP from Switzerland to France, while keeping constant the other variables and exploring both years 2020 and 2030.

2020 LOW Disruption Norpipe NO min

2030 PCI Disruption Norpipe NO min

DEn

DEn

FRn

FRn

AT

AT

CH

CH

ITe

ITe

IT

IT

ITs

ITs

Figure 7.13: Case study 3c flow patterns

Figure 7.14: Case study 3d flow patterns

Compared to the previous case studies 1 and 2 (variants c and d), all related to more or less intense Russian disruptions, in cases 3c and 3d the possibility to get to a full reverse flow configuration is not displayed by the model results. The disruption of Norpipe and the simultaneous availability of Russian flows activate a partial reverse flow configuration, this time directed from Italy - which can benefit from gas from Austria coming likely from Ukraine – towards Switzerland and then to Germany and France. To be noted that the flows towards Northern Europe via Switzerland result more relevant compared to the ones obtained in the cases of a complete reverse flow configuration to reflect the competing nature of reverse-flow capacities at the ITe node. Finally, the comparison of results between the years 2020 and 2030 gives additional hints towards the importance of a reinforcement of the Italian network (“Adriatica Line” and “TAP interconnection”), if relevant volumes from North Africa and the Southern Corridor have to be made available at the benefits of overall European diversification and security of supply.

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017