ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.3.5 CASE STUDY 3A/3B

CASE DESCRIPTION

2030

Year

Peak Demand: Northern EU

Climatic conditions

Norwegian flows (Norpipe to DE)

Supply disruptions

a) Low b) PCI

Infrastructure level

Norwegian most expensive

Supply prices

Table 7.5: Boundary conditions for case study 3a and 3b

A third interesting case assumes the interruption of Norwegian flows towards Ger- many at the Emden interconnection point, as it is one of the main access points for this source to Europe. At the same time, the residual flows from Norway are as- sumed to become relatively more expensive, since the availability of this supply is becoming more limited.

2030 LOW Disruption Norpipe NO min

2030 PCI Disruption Norpipe NO min

DEn

DEn

FRn

FRn

AT

AT

CH

CH

ITe

ITe

IT

IT

ITs

ITs

Figure 7.11: Case study 3a flow patterns

Figure 7.12: Case study 3b flow patterns

The outcomes of this configuration differ from the previous ones due to the wide availability of Russian flows, neither disrupted nor restricted by price constraints. In this situation, reverse flows are activated only from Italy towards Switzerland and Germany, while the IP between Italy and Austria is used to convey part of the Russian resources towards Europe. Again, in the PCI infrastructure level more gas is made available to the Italian system (Figure 7.12) and indirectly for the overall of Europe compared to the “Low” infrastructure level situation (Figure 7.11).

South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |

93