ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.3.4 CASE STUDY 2C/2D

CASE DESCRIPTION

c) 2020 d) 2030

Year

Peak Demand: Northern EU Average Winter: Rest of EU

Climatic conditions

Russian flows via UA

Supply disruptions

c) Low d) PCI

Infrastructure level

Norwegian most expensive

Supply prices

CH>FRn bundled firm

Capacity

Table 7.4: Boundary conditions for case study 2c and 2d

As for section 7.3.2, the exercise to adopt different climatic conditions across Europe and fully (bundled) firm capacity at Oltingue IP from Switzerland to France has been repeated with other variables constant except the exploration of the year 2020 in addition to 2030.

2020 LOW Disruption Ukraine NO min

2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine NO min

DEn

DEn

FRn

FRn

AT

AT

CH

CH

ITe

ITe

IT

IT

ITs

ITs

Figure 7.9: Case study 2c flow patterns

Figure 7.10: Case study 2d flow patterns

The results obtained in cases c and d generally reflect the trend of a full reverse flow configuration towards Northern Europe already detected in the analogous cases 1c and d. A complete reverse flow appears already in 2020 – with all SNC reverse flow projects commissioned – providing even more relevant results in 2030, with the commissioning of the other projects in Italy which can maximise the SNC potential.

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017