ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.3.3 CASE STUDY 2A/2B

CASE DESCRIPTION

2030

Year

Peak Demand: Overall EU

Climatic conditions

Russian flows via UA

Supply disruptions

a) Low b) PCI

Infrastructure level

Norwegian most expensive

Supply prices

Table 7.3: Boundary conditions for case study 2a and 2b

A second analysed configuration is assuming only a partial disruption of Russian flows, related to the Ukrainian transit route (flows through Belarus are not interrupted). In addition, similarly to cases 1a and 1b, the main residual pipeline source available to Northern European countries (Norwegian gas) is set as trading at a premium, becoming relatively more expensive than all other potential supply sources.

2030 LOW Disruption Ukraine NO min

2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine NO min

DEn

DEn

FRn

FRn

AT

AT

CH

CH

ITe

ITe

IT

IT

ITs

ITs

Figure 7.7: Case study 2a flow patterns

Figure 7.8: Case study 2b flow patterns

Similarly to the previous case studies 1a and 1b, also here 2 nd PCI list projects are making additional resources available from Italy towards Northern Europe. In par- ticular, the effect of the “Adriatica Line” commissioning creates additional capacity in the South of Italy (ITs) and makes enough volumes available to the Italian system able to support a complete reverse flow layout (Figure 7.8), which is not detected in case Italian network reinforcements are not implemented (Figure 7.7).

South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |

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