ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report
7.3.3 CASE STUDY 2A/2B
CASE DESCRIPTION
2030
Year
Peak Demand: Overall EU
Climatic conditions
Russian flows via UA
Supply disruptions
a) Low b) PCI
Infrastructure level
Norwegian most expensive
Supply prices
Table 7.3: Boundary conditions for case study 2a and 2b
A second analysed configuration is assuming only a partial disruption of Russian flows, related to the Ukrainian transit route (flows through Belarus are not interrupted). In addition, similarly to cases 1a and 1b, the main residual pipeline source available to Northern European countries (Norwegian gas) is set as trading at a premium, becoming relatively more expensive than all other potential supply sources.
2030 LOW Disruption Ukraine NO min
2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine NO min
DEn
DEn
FRn
FRn
AT
AT
CH
CH
ITe
ITe
IT
IT
ITs
ITs
Figure 7.7: Case study 2a flow patterns
Figure 7.8: Case study 2b flow patterns
Similarly to the previous case studies 1a and 1b, also here 2 nd PCI list projects are making additional resources available from Italy towards Northern Europe. In par- ticular, the effect of the “Adriatica Line” commissioning creates additional capacity in the South of Italy (ITs) and makes enough volumes available to the Italian system able to support a complete reverse flow layout (Figure 7.8), which is not detected in case Italian network reinforcements are not implemented (Figure 7.7).
South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |
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