ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.3.2 CASE STUDY 1C/1D

CASE DESCRIPTION

c) 2020 d) 2030

Year

Peak Demand: Northern EU Average Winter: Rest of EU

Climatic conditions

Russian flows (UA+BY)

Supply disruptions

c) Low d) PCI

Infrastructure level

Southern sources cheaper (AZ+DZ+LY)

Supply prices

CH>FRn bundled firm

Capacity

Table 7.2: Boundary conditions for case study 1c and 1d

Compared to the previous cases 1a and 1b, the following cases adopt the hypothe- sis to have different climatic conditions across Europe, relaxing the assumption to have the overall continent under really tight peak demand conditions. Additionally, the capacity at Oltingue IP from Switzerland to France has been considered as fully (bundled) firm. The other boundary conditions stay the same and the flows patterns are reported respectively for 2020 under Low infrastructure level and for 2030 under PCI infrastructure level.

2020 LOW Disruption Ukraine–Belarus AZ-DZ-LY max

2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine–Belarus AZ-DZ-LY max

DEn

DEn

FRn

FRn

AT

AT

CH

CH

ITe

ITe

IT

IT

ITs

ITs

Figure 7.5: Case study 1c flow patterns

Figure 7.6: Case study 1d flow patterns

In these cases, the reverse flow towards Northern Europe appears complete already in 2020 – when the described SNC reverse flow projects are all commissioned – and provides even more relevant results in 2030, with the commissioning of the PCI project “Adriatica Line” (264GWh/d), making higher volumes available for export potentially coming from new sources (e. g. Azeri gas through TAP and/or additional volumes from the East-Mediterranean basin/Middle East and North Africa).

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017