ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.3.1 CASE STUDY 1A/1B

CASE DESCRIPTION

2030

Year

Peak Demand: Overall EU

Climatic conditions

Russian flows (UA+BY)

Supply disruptions

a) Low b) PCI

Infrastructure level

Southern sources cheaper (AZ+DZ+LY)

Supply prices

Table 7.1: Boundary conditions for case study 1a and 1b

Under the circumstance of a full onshore Russian disruption, Norwegian and LNG flows would be the first primary sources available for Northern Europe. This situation is likely to generate a price increase for these residual resources which would be traded at premium compared to relatively cheap sources from Southern and Southeastern Europe, being less affected by the critical situation. The flow patterns arising from this situation are triggering flows from Southern to Northern Europe, as represented in Figure 7.3 and Figure 7.4. The Italian network is exploiting its possibility to accommodate gas flows towards Northern and Central Europe activating a double reverse flow at IT-CH and IT-AT borders. Nevertheless, the maximum use of the reverse flow infrastructure is made possible under the 2 nd PCI list infrastruc- ture level, which includes the additional capacity from the South of Italy to the North, available from 2023 onwards by the commissioning of the PCI project “Adriatica Line” (264GWh/d). In particular, with the commissioning of this project, higher volumes potentially coming from new sources (e. g. Azeri gas through TAP) are expected to flow at the Griespass interconnection point, jumping from a threshold which seems only locally relevant to two-third of the total reverse flow technical capacity from Italy towards Northern Europe, highlighting a more relevant impact on a continental scale.

2030 LOW Disruption Ukraine–Belarus AZ-DZ-LY max

2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine–Belarus AZ-DZ-LY max

DEn

DEn

FRn

FRn

AT

AT

CH

CH

ITe

ITe

IT

IT

ITs

ITs

Figure 7.3: Case study 1a flow patterns

Figure 7.4: Case study 1b flow patterns

South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |

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