ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

Some recent actual examples which cannot be fully covered neither foreseen due to the necessary degree of simplification any model requires are: \\ low LNG deliveries combined with other specific demand drivers, such for example multiple nuclear outages in France (December 2016) or Northern Europe \\ more or less prolonged cold snap, associated with high demand for power generation (January 2017) \\ restriction to storage or production capacities at key facilities (Rough in the United Kingdom, Bergermeer and/or Groningen in the Netherlands during 2016) Nevertheless, some of these events almost brought “Transitgas [forward] flows close to zero” (Argus European Gas Report, 7 February 2017) with the price spread between PSV and Northern EU hubs reverting to a discount from the current usual premium conditions. The gas infrastructure managed to support the high energy demand under all the specific circumstances mentioned above. In the following sections, the results obtained from the NeMo model are reported identifying the prevailing flows under the considered cases. Since the specific figures produced by the model represent one of potentially many solutions, the exact numbers for flows are not reported. Flow directions and relative magnitudes are considered as the significant outcomes and represented respectively by arrows and corresponding thickness. For Italy, the two nodes ITs and ITe, which represent respectively the total of capacities available in competition for import flows at southern Italian IPs (flows from North Africa, Southern Corridor, East Mediterranean, Middle East and possible future LNG regasification plants) and the total of capacities in competition for export flows towards Austria and Switzerland, are reported in addition to flows at the Italian national balancing point (IT) in order to be consistent with the NeMo network topology. For all the following flow patterns representations, the darker blue arrows should be intended as results produced by the NeMo modelling tool taking into account the same assumption on capacities as in TYNDP 2017. The faded blue arrows refer to flows originating from simulations taking into account the capacity at Oltingue IP from Switzerland to France as fully firm. This additional sensitivity analysis, included in the “cases c and d,” for consistency reasons has been adopted to reflect the particular nature of the capacity at Oltingue IP from Switzerland (CH) to France (FRn), currently declared as firm without additional constraints only at the Swiss side in the direction of CH towards FRn (at the French side its nature is still under definition).  4)

 4) For a complete description of the capacities along the South-North Corridor and their use in the ENTSOG NeMo tool, please refer to the previous Chapter 6, in particular to the section “6.5 South-North Corridor Capacities: An Overall Picture”.

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017