ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.3 Assessment Results

In accordance with the results obtained in TYNDP 2017, no major capacity issues were detected to face demand under perfect market conditions  2) for the countries that constitute the South-North Corridor Region when the European supply is not facing any disruptions. However, additional projects can heavily improve security of sup- ply and market integration under more market based conditions. As for the considered disruption scenarios, the biggest impact in Europe occurs when considering a problem with Russian or Norwegian supplies. For this 3 rd edition of the SNC GRIP, the cases for which results are visualised below,

are the following ones: Russian disruptions: \\ full interruption of flows through Ukraine and Belarus \\ partial interruption of flows only via Ukraine

Norwegian disruption: \\ assumed to be related to Norpipe outage.

In these cases all demand in the CEE and/or NW Regions cannot be met and considerable impacts would be expected, especially under peak demand conditions. SNC capacities could help to transport some more gas from other sources to the im- pacted countries to relieve their conditions, potentially bringing less expensive ener- gy resources being far from the problematic situations and therefore less influenced by the considered supply crisis. Throughout the simulated scenarios a wide range of different flow patterns in Europe in general and along the South-North Corridor in specific is observed. This illustrates the flexibility in the potential usage of the Corridor infrastructure in the centre of Europe to connect the various markets from north to south or from south to north under diverging conditions and potential combinations of demand and supply. Results showing a utilisation of the South-North Corridor backbone in the reverse direction have been in particular identified. In the following sub-sections, only the most significant examples of such market behaviour are highlighted with a focus on the circumstances leading to these kinds of flow patterns  3) . The hypothesis underlying the represented flow patterns should not necessarily be interpreted as strictly realistic neither as a forecast of possible future situations. The case study assumptions have been designed to capture those market behaviours that the ENTSOG network modelling tool can currently not replicate, due to the basic routines and building blocks that each model must adopt as a simplification to reality.

 2) The ENTSOG network modelling tool assumes a one-shipper behaviour without commercial restrictions taking into account only technical capacities.  3) It has to be noted that other flow combinations might also be possible to cope with the considered supply and demand profiles: this is an observation that should always be considered when looking at results from ENTSOG NeMo simulations.

South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |

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