ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.2.4 SUPPLY AND PRICE CONFIGURATIONS

The same supply approach followed for TYNDP 2017 has been adopted in order to define the infrastructure utilisation rates (pipeline, storages and LNG plants) and different import source potentials. With relation to disruption cases, particular relevance has been reserved to:

\\ Ukraine \\ Belarus \\ Norway \\ Algeria

As for price configurations assumptions, the cases with cheaper North African (Algerian and Libyan) and Azeri gas have been investigated as well the cases where flows from Russia and/or Norway would represent the most expensive sources. Finally, specific supply disruptions have been coupled with source price configura- tions, as shown in Figure 7.2 by the arrow linking the disruptions and the supply source prices columns. The mix of the supply and price configurations considered in this network modelling analysis should not be interpreted as predictions for the future. Nevertheless, these cases have been designed for simulating situations triggering flows patterns, especially along the South-North Corridor route. In fact, due to its perfect market functioning assumption and other necessary simplifications, the NeMo model is not able to adequately represent market features reflecting hub prices differentials generated by various important demand drivers and/or infrastructure capacity restrictions (e. g. local energy demand spikes and/or specific facilities unavailability generating tensions on prices).

Demand Scenario

Infrastructure Level

Climatic Conditions

Supply Sources Prices

Years

Disruptions

Cheaper

Ukraine

AZ

Design Case (Peak demand)

DZ/LY

Ukraine + Belarus

2017

Low

AZ/DZ/LY

2020

Blue

+

2 nd PCI List

2030

More expensive

Norway

Average demand

NO

Algeria

NO/RU

Figure 7.2: Schematic summary of the simulation cases for the 3 rd SNC GRIP edition

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017