ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

7.2.2 INFRASTRUCTURE

Two infrastructure clusters have been considered as the most relevant for this analysis purposes: \\ The “Low” infrastructure level, which complements the already existing infrastructure with projects that have already proceeded to FID. \\ The “2 nd PCI list” infrastructure level, which is adding to the “Low” infrastruc- ture level all PCI projects resulting from the second PCI selection round. To come to a manageable number of simulations and to get to a more focused analysis, both “Advanced” and “High” infrastructure levels, as defined in ENTSOG TYNDP 2017, have not been taken into account. This choice is also linked to the fact that the core projects bridging the South-North Corridor to the existing infra- structure will show their impacts in the “Low” infrastructure level as from year 2020 (the South-North Corridor reverse flow projects will be commissioned by the end of 2018 and TAP by the beginning of 2020), and the additional reinforcements of the Italian grid making available new potential gas sources for Europe will display their effects in 2030 at least for simulation purposes (“Adriatica Line” is a PCI project with commissioning scheduled for 2023). As for the anticipated gas demand throughout Europe, the following cases were taken into account: \\ winter peak demand (design case) situations of one-day duration \\ average winter demand Both demand cases are derived under the Blue Transition scenario storyline defined in ENTSOG TYNDP 2017. This scenario has been considered as representing the most challenging one in terms of infrastructure adequacy while, at the same time, representing a future evolution where gas is playing a key role in terms of meeting European energy needs at competitive and affordable costs, with respect to the environmental targets. For the high daily demand the design case scenarios from TSOs constitute the reference scenario. A first set of simulations has been performed taking into account a homogeneous demand situation across the whole of Europe (corresponding to cases a and b in the section 7.3 “Assessment Results”). A second set of simulations has been carried out adopting a reduced demand situ- ation by releasing the constraint to maintain the whole continent under winter peak conditions. This represents a new climatic “macro-regional” approach introduced for the first time in the second edition of the SNC GRIP and, at this stage, not considered in TYNDP which takes a more general overall EU approach. Specifical- ly, one macro-region has been considered under peak demand situations (“North- ern Europe”) while all other Member States (“Rest of Europe”) are assumed to be under average winter demand conditions (corresponding to cases c and d in the section 7.3 “Assessment Results). The detailed lists of the EU countries as grouped in consideration of the two macro-areas defined above are: \\ Northern Europe: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom \\ Rest of Europe: all the other EU-28 Member States

7.2.3 DEMAND

84 |

South-North Corridor GRIP 2017