ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

Each scenario foresees a different role for natural gas in the various sectors (i. e. heating, transport, industry and power generation), with consequently a different expected evolution of the EU overall demand for the four storylines, as illustrated in the graph in Figure 3.13 for the whole EU-28 area and for the countries of the South-North Corridor.

TWh/y

Total annual demand

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Slow Progression – EU28

Green Evolution – EU28

Blue Transition – EU28

Green Revolution – EU28

Green Evolution – SNC Region

Blue Transition – SNC Region

Slow Progression – SNC Region

Green Revolution – SNC Region

Figure 3.13: Evolution of total demand between 2017 and 2037 for EU-28 and South-North Corridor countries according to different scenarios (Source: projection based on data from TSOs collected by ENTSOG)

At European level, the EU Green Revolution scenario envisages a decrease in terms of total demand while the Slow Progression and Green Evolution scenarios foresee a general stable evolution. The Blue Transition storyline on the other hand is the only scenario predicting a moderate increase in natural gas demand in the coming years, mainly driven by the utilisation of this energy source both in substitution of other more carbon-intensive fuels and as an ideal partner for renewable energy sources (RES) full development. For the countries of the South-North Corridor, according to all the scenarios a general stability in gas demand is expected over the next two decades, with a positive growth rate only for the Blue Transition scenario, and a slightly negative trend for the other scenarios. The Blue Transition scenario, as defined by ENTSOG, assumes conditions of moderate economic growth for the near future, with a relevant development of RES and with the presence of policies at European level that will allow to be substantially on track with carbon targets set by the European Commission. The adoption of the estimates included in the Blue Transition scenario has been considered as the most appropriate choice for the purposes of this publication as a reference to guarantee the adequacy of the infrastructure basis also in the future years, therefore all the estimates reported in the following paragraphs have been calculated accordingly to the assumptions summarised above.

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017