ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

3.3 Demand Forecast

This section reports the results of the demand forecasts for the period 2017-2037, based on the data gathered by ENTSOG for TYNDP 2017 purposes. Estimates on the demand for the next twenty years have been produced by the relevant TSOs, for both the yearly demand and the peak demand, according to four different scenari- os: \\ Slow Progression The economic growth is limited in this scenario. Green ambitions are the lowest and so the energy generation mix stays generally the same as today. \\ Blue Transition This scenario shows efficient achievement in terms of green ambitions under a context of moderate economic growth. \\ Green Evolution This scenario is characterised by favourable economic conditions and high green ambitions with high RES development. \\ European Green Revolution The storyline for the Green Revolution scenario is largely based on the same assumptions as Green Evolution, however the EU 2050 climate targets are reached earlier.

EU GREEN REVOLUTION

GREEN EVOLUTION

BLUE TRANSITION

ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOW PROGRESSION

GREEN AMBITION

Figure 3.12: ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 scenario storylines (Source: ENTSOG TYNDP 2017)

These scenarios have been defined by ENTSOG   2) and depend mainly on the relationship between the evolution of the economic growth within the EU and the development and implementation of green practices, thus giving ENTSOG the reasonable extremes within which to assess the existing and future European gas system infrastructure.

 2) For a full description of each scenario, see the following link: http://www.entsog.eu/public/uploads/files/publications/TYNDP/2016/entsog_tyndp_2017_main_report_web.pdf

South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |

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