ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

Analysis of Algerian disruption case

Under MAGHREB disruption, the main impacted country is Spain. Even in PCI and High levels of infrastructure, the country remains far below France and Portugal, but still with a Remaining Flexibility above 20%. As for MAGHREB disruption case, the main impact of MEDGAZ disruption is located in Spain with reduction in the remaining flexibility of approximately 10% in comparison with no disruption case.

%

Remaining flexibility – MEG disruption

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

PT

ES

FRn

HIGH

PCI

LOW

Figure 7.10: Evolution of Remaining Flexibility in the South Region for Blue Transition Demand scenario under MEG disruption (Source: TYNDP 2017)

%

Remaining flexibility – MEDGAZ disruption

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

PT

ES

FRn

HIGH

PCI

LOW

Figure 7.11: Evolution of Remaining Flexibility in the South Region for Blue Transition Demand scenario under MEDGAZ disruption (Source: TYNDP 2017)

Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017 | 99