ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

Network Assessment South Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017– deeply analyses the main results regarding the South Region obtained in the Network Assessment chapter from the ENTSOG TYNDP 2017. The results of the ENTSOG TYNDP assessment give an overall assessment of infra- structure investment needs at a European level. Those are divided into areas defined as: security of supply, competition, sustainability and market integration. These pillars are supported by a set of different indicators which can be combined by the European Commission in order to evaluate the benefits of a specific project.

7.2.1 REMAINING FLEXIBILITY & DISRUPTED RATE

Disrupted Rate

In the South Region, no problems of disrupted rate have been identified for any demand scenario or disruption case in TYNDP 2017.

Remaining Flexibility

This indicator measures resilience at country level and is calculated as the additional share of demand each country is able to cover before an infrastructure or supply limitation is reached. Demand is set on design case. The higher the indicator value is, the better the resilience. In case where countries experience disrupted demand, the Remaining Flexibility is equal to zero. It is of importance to emphasise that in order to stress the network, most unfavour- able conditions were considered; results shown in Figure 7.8 are calculated for Blue Transition demand scenario for peak situation. The results of ENTSOG simulations (Figure 7.8) show a good level of Remaining Flexibility for the South Region. It can be concluded that the network for these countries is sufficiently strong and can stand wide variations of gas demand in the system. Additionally, ENTSOG analysed in the TYNDP 2017 a set of route disruptions, leading to only two route disruptions with relevant results in terms of remaining flexibility at a European level: the Belarus and Ukraine route disruptions. Neverthe- less, for the South Region, neither disruption has significant impact on Remaining Flexibility. This can be explained by the robustness of the current gas system, being able to re-route supply of interrupted routes and bring additional gas through LNG terminals and UGS. Despite showing good results in terms of remaining flexibility for the South Region, differences between the three countries can be observed as it is shown in the graphs below. The graphs in figure 7.9 show that over time, the Iberian Peninsula is losing its remaining f­lexibility if there is no new development of infrastructure. This situation is due to the increase of demand which occurs for Spain and Portugal in all demand scenarios. In Portugal, remaining flexibility for PCI and High infra-levels increases considerably due to the commissioning of the 3 rd interconnection between Spain and Portugal.

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Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017