ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

7.1.4.2 Definition of scenarios

From the Portuguese and Spanish side, demand scenarios were stablished as following:

DEMAND SCENARIO

DESCRIPTION

Moderate economic growth, scenarios were built from the forecasted values for summer, winter and peak demand for 2020, 2025 and 2030 Moderate economic growth and existing coal fired power plants of Sines and Pego are not decommissioned until 2025 High economic growth, scenarios were built from the forecasted values for summer, winter and peak demand for 2020, 2025 and 2030 High economic growth and existing coal fired power plants of Sines and Pego are decommissioned before 2025

Final Demand

Base scenario

Power Sector

Portugal

Final Demand

SoS scenario

Power Sector

Enagás stablished three scenarios in 2020, 2025 and 2030, average winter, average summer and peak winter day

Spain

Final demand & Power sector

Table 7.1: Description of demand scenarios in Portugal and Spain of 3 rd Interconnection Point between Portugal and Spain technical studies (Source: TSO own elaboration)

In this joint study, each TSO determined the potential capacity in the 3 rd IP PT-ES for all the scenarios and considered the values of highest probability of occurrence, obtaining the common capacities (lesser rule) shown in the following table:

3 RD IP CAPACITY

2020

2025

2030

PT

ES

Final Value (GWh/day)

1 st Step 1 st Step

70

107

2 nd Step

2 nd Step

Spain

to Portugal

3 rd Step

139

1 st Step 1 st Step

70

97

2 nd Step

2 nd Step

to Spain

Portugal

3 rd Step

126

Table 7.2: Final 3 rd IP capacity for both directions (Source: TSO own elaboration)

The total cost of the considered infrastructures is approximately M€ 771. The cost of the considered infrastructures for the 1 st Stage of the project is approx- imately M€ 189 and for the 2 nd Stage of the project is approximately M€ 582, with a total of M€ 771  7) . The outputs of both technical studies (capacities and related infrastructures) have been considered in ENTSOG TYNDP 2017   8) and have also been included in the infrastructure chapter of this GRIP South.

 7) 3 rd Interconnection point between Spain and Portugal, technical study between Enagás and REN  8) http://www.entsog.eu/publications/tyndp#ENTSOG-TEN-YEAR-NETWORK-DEVELOPMENT-PLAN-2017

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