ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

4.4 Supply Potentials

European Union indigenous production is expected to reach its peak in 2020, and is set to decrease from 120Gm³ in 2015 to 51 Gm³ in 2035 as is has been fore- seen by ENTSOG for the TYNDP 2017, mostly due to an acceleration of the decline in the Netherlands and the North Sea. This will especially affect France, in which 9% of imported gas is L-gas produced in the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands where gas extraction is currently being slowed down to prevent earthquakes. Gas production in Norway would remain stable over the coming years. However, in the absence of discovery of new gas fields, extraction will decrease by approximately 25% by 2040 according to IEA predictions. At present, the Iberian Peninsula is highly dependent on Algerian natural gas by pipeline (see figure 4.5). The current downward trend of Algerian exports (–37% between 2005 and 2015, explained by increased Algerian domestic demand and uncertainty in the upstream’s investments), could have significant impact in South Region. Therefore, it may be beneficial to ensure that access to other sources of pipe gas extends throughout the Southern Region, by way of the interconnections at the French and Spanish border. In addition, the high level of regasification capacity in the South Region could help mitigate the potential decrease of Algerian imports. Possible new sources of natural gas primarily include Russia, which could be exporting an additional 40bcm to Europe in 2030 in the TYNDP 2017 “Maximum Scenario”. LNG is also a potential supplier, especially given the highly developed regasification capacities in Europe.

bcm/year

250

200

150

100

50

0

2017

2020

2030

2017

2020

2030

2017

2020

2030

Russia

Norway

Algeria

Figure 4.9: Supply potential forecasts to the EU 27 for Russia, Norway, and Algeria, bcm/year (Source: ENTSOG, TYNDP 2017)

Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017 | 49