ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

Power Generation Demand

In the power generation sector, all demand scenarios are showing a significant increase, which implies reductions in yearly CO ² emissions.

TWh/y

France

160 140 120 100 80

Blue Transition

Slow Progression

EU Green Revolution

Green Evolution

60

40

0 20

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

Green Evolution

EU Green Revolution

Figure 3.20: Power generation demand by country – France (Source: Data from TYNDP 2017, own elaboration)

In France, the Blue Transition and the Green Evolution scenarios are the same: the demand increases till 2030 and then stabilises. In the EU Green Revolution and the Slow Progression scenarios, starting from 2025, demand for power generation is assumed to remain stable (detrimental context for gas fired power plants).

TWh/y

Spain

160

80 100 120 140

Blue Transition

Slow Progression

EU Green Revolution

Green Evolution

60 40 20 0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

Green Evolution

EU Green Revolution

Figure 3.21: Power generation demand by country – Spain (Source: Data from TYNDP 2017, own elaboration)

For Spain, the demand increases for all scenarios, with more demand in the Blue Transition and less demand in the Slow Progression. In Spain, the EU Green Revolution and the Green Evolution have the same demand.

TWh/y

Portugal

100

20 10 40 30 70 60 50 90 80

Blue Transition

Slow Progression

EU Green Revolution

Green Evolution

0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

Green Evolution

EU Green Revolution

Figure 3.22: Power generation demand by country – Portugal (Source: Data from TYNDP 2017, own elaboration)

In Portugal, the demand increases in all scenarios, but the Slow Progression Scenario has a special behavior, decreasing slightly until 2025, and then increasing in 2030 due to the decommissioning of the coal power plants before 2030. Slow Progression scenario is the only scenario with less demand for power because coal is expected to be a favored fossil fuel, rather than natural gas.

Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017 | 37