ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

For the South Region, there are some specificities and methodologies to calculate the demand to incorporate in the scenarios defined by ENTSOG for TYNDP 2017.

ES (SPAIN)

An increase in the final demand is expected related to the growth of new industrial and residential customers (fuel substituted by gas). About power generation, for the Blue Transition scenario, a shutdown of coal fired power plants was considered, and RES and non-RES capacity are high. For the Green Evolution, a high capacity for RES and non-RES is expected. In the Slow Progression, the gas consumption will decrease and RES and non-RES will increase.

FR (FRANCE) All scenarios are consistent with GRTgaz’s and TIGF’s Network Development plans for the 2015–2024 period. For the final gas demand a decrease is expected because of the enhancement of energy efficiency in households and the industrial sector (slow progression and blue transition scenarios). In the Green Evolution, the new environmental directives (reduction of fossil fuel consumption) were taken. About power generation, for the scenarios Slow Progression and Top-down Green Evolution, TSOs use their lowest trajectory, with a stagnation. For the Blue Transition, the energy transition scenario was set in accordance with RTE’s new mix scenario. PT (PORTUGAL) For the final gas demand, the main drivers for estimation are national policy, GDP (Gross Domestic Production), GVA (Gross Value Added) of the different sectors of the economy, the available income of the families and the extension of the NG networks in the country. About power generation demand, from 2017 to 2030, the main driver for gas consumption is the decommissioning date of the two existing coal-fired power plants, which will be determined by the will of its promoters and the energy policy defined by the Government. For the Slow progression scenario, the later decommissioning of the two existing coal-fired power plants and medium electricity demand was considered. In the Blue Transition Scenario, the decommissioning of the two existing coal-fired power plants (gas before coal) was considered earlier and high electricity demand too. In the Green Evolution scenario, the early decommissioning of the two existing coal-fired power plants (gas before coal) was considered, as well as a medium electricity demand to account for a faster efficiency improvement and higher renewables contribution. There are no forecasts for 2035.

Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017 | 33