ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

Based on these two axes, four scenarios were created: from Slow Progression, where there is little to no stimulus to change the energy sector radically from what we see today, to the Green scenarios where decarbonisation targets have caused funda- mental changes to the energy background. The Green Evolution scenario represents the standard bottom-up data collection process from TSOs, while EU Green Revolution was developed using a combined approach between TSO bottom-up data and top-down adjustment with EU climate targets that could be achieved earlier leading to a faster decline in gas consumption with which to perform TYNDP assessment. In this chapter, results are shown for every scenario. Each of the scenarios had a storyline developed to reflect a possible future of gas demand. SLOW PROGRESSION (SP) The economic growth is limited in this scenario. Penetration of RES is at the lowest level as the incentives for renewables are limited in combination with a low CO ² price. Green solutions are mostly not implemented due to economic reasons; energy efficiencies are at the slowest level of improvement. Overall, this scenario shows stagnation in natural gas demand at EU level.

BLUE TRANSITION (BT) This scenario shows efficient achievement in terms of green ambitions under a context of moderate economic growth. Thus, the penetration of RES is higher than in the Slow Progression scenario but does not reach the level of the Green scenarios.

GREEN EVOLUTION (GE) This scenario is characterised by favorable economic conditions and high green ambitions with high RES development. Realisation of environment targets and their fulfilment is set at a high priority and backed by public acceptance but are dealt with using more national policies than in the EU Green Revolution scenario. The European economy is prospering enabling a high support for renewable energy in the long- term perspective. This scenario is on track with the EU 2050 targets. Efficiencies for current technologies undergo a fast development, the CO ² price is at highest level. The internal energy market is well working, European member states are characterised by a strong cooperation, especially regarding the reduction of CO ² emissions. EU GREEN REVOLUTION (EUGR) This scenario is characterised by favorable economic conditions and high green ambitions with high RES development. The internal energy market is well working, where European member states have a strong cooperation, especially regarding the reduction of CO ² emissions. Infrastructure projects which have a positive impact to reach the environmental targets will be commissioned in time.

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Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017