ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

ENTSOG has applied a methodology, to help TSO’s use the data from ENTSO-E to determine the gas demand required for power generation, the thermal gap approach of coal and gas generation in order to account for specificities within countries or accurately reflect the merit order of the scenarios, which may not have been reflect- ed in the visions. The implementation of this methodology requires a significant number of assump- tions, including electricity generation from alternative sources, the electricity exchange with neighbouring countries, assumptions regarding the usage of CHP (those facilities earn their money in both the heat and the electricity market) and limitations in the utilisation of coal and gas. These assumptions are based on the actual electricity mix, along with feedback from stakeholders and inputs from TSOs, reflecting the specific factors for each country. The long-term evolution of gas demand depends on many factors, including demog- raphy, macroeconomic parameters, energy and emissions prices as well as targets set by energy and environmental policies. For TYNDP 2017, two main axes were considered, Economic Growth and Green Ambition.

EU GREEN REVOLUTION

GREEN EVOLUTION

BLUE TRANSITION

ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOW PROGRESSION

GREEN AMBITION

Figure 3.12: TYNDP 2017 Demand Scenario Axis Diagram (Source: ENTSOG – TYNDP 2017)

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