ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2017 - 2026 / Southern Corridor / Main Report

It should be noted that in the supply disruption analysis the cooperative approach is followed. This means that an affected country starts supplying its neighbours even before fully covering its own demand. This is in line with the new Security of Supply Regulation which gives priority to the supply of “protected customers” recognised as such by the competent NRA, regardless of the country where they are established \\ Price: For the examination of the impact of supply sources price differences to flows, the prices of three sources have been reduced, one at a time, by 10% compared to the Reference price. These sources are: Russian gas, LNG and Azeri gas As the use of the cheaper source is maximised those cases are also referred to as RU max, LNG max and AZ max. The following table summarises the scenarios and the corresponding values of the parameters used

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Year

Infrastructure level

Demand

Disruption

Price

2020

Low

AW

None

2020

Low

DC

UA

2020

Low

DC

Transmed

2030

Low

AW

None

2030

Low

DC

UA

2030

Low

DC

Transmed

Reference

2020

PCI

AW

None

2020

PCI

DC

UA

2020

PCI

DC

Transmed

2030

PCI

AW

None

2030

PCI

DC

UA

2030

PCI

DC

Transmed

FLOWS PATTERN UNDER PRICE VARIATION

Year

Infrastructure level

Demand

Disruption

Price

2020

Low

Reference

2020

Low

RU max

2020

Low

AZ max

2020

Low

LNG max

AW

None

2030

Low

Reference

2030

Low

RU max

2030

Low

AZ max

2030

Low

LNG max

2020

PCI

Reference

2020

PCI

RU max

2020

PCI

AZ max

2020

PCI

LNG max

AW

None

2030

PCI

Reference

2030

PCI

RU max

2030

PCI

AZ max

2030

PCI

LNG max

Note: In the non-disruption cases the average winter demand is considered while in the cases with disruption the Design Case demand is considered, therefore their results are not directly comparable. Table 7.1: Scenarios examined in the Assessment chapter

Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026 |

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