Figure 4.3: National production forecast with and without the production of Cyprus
It has however to be noted that the estimation of the effective, and not only arithmetic, share of national production on the Region’s demand depends on the final destination of the Cypriot gas. In fact, this gas will need to be exported but it is not yet known in what form (liquid or gaseous) neither to which destination. Moreover, the quantities discovered so far do not seem sufficient to make feasible the initial plan of installing a liquefaction plant in Cyprus, however exploration still goes on and there are more promising areas to be explored. Among the export schemes proposed are a pipeline to Turkey, (a low probability option), a pipeline to Egypt, either to cover the growing needs of this country or to use its liquefaction installations (an option with reduced appeal since the discovery the Zhor gas field in Egypt) and a pipeline to Crete and on to continental Greece, connected to the Poseidon offshore pipeline connecting Greece with Italy (an option technically challenging). In order to enhance the feasibility of this last option, Cyprus could team with other countries of the eastern Mediterranean, like Israel and possibly Lebanon, so that a critical mass is reached that will increase the attractiveness of such a gas export project. The number of potential partners and the tensions inherent to this Region make, at this stage, any prediction on the successful option uncertain. In the present GRIP the non-FID project of a pipeline linking the eastern Mediterranean gas fields to Greece and further to Italy, proposed by 3 rd parties, has been included.