ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2017 - 2026 / Southern Corridor / Main Report

3.4 Annual and Peak Demand evolution

In this paragraph we present forecasted data of annual and peak daily demand country by country. The Regional increase in annual demand is expected to be 16%. From the graphs of figure 3.11 it results that Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy and Slovenia expect an increase in gas demand for power generation. Moreover it is shown that in several countries the in- crease percentage of the daily peak demand is expect- ed to exceed the one of the yearly demand. This may be attributed to the increase of intermittency of the CCGT operation needed to support the use of renewa- ble energy sources. The evolution of the annual demand refers to the period 2017–2026   5) . Please note that the peak demand line corresponds to the right-hand vertical axis. Therefore the distance of this line from the bars representing the annual demand (read on the left-hand axis) does not have any significance.  6) The right graphs provide an additional sign on the im- portance of peak demand requirements in terms of disaggregated analysis per country. Peak daily demand is growing in the majority of Regional States, providing an indication for potential infrastructure development needs. This conclusion is particularly relevant for those countries having still an important potential ahead. For mature markets peak demand is more stable and infrastructure enhancements could be more linked to the changing evolution of demand and supply patterns and to the necessity to adequately refurbish gas system components and equipment.

GWh/y Yearly Demand

675 700 GWh/d

Austria

80,000 70,000

60,000

650 625 550 525 575 600

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0

500

Final

Power generation

Peak daily demand

Evolution of annual demand (%): 0.36 Evolution of Final/PowerG (%): 2/−6  6) Evolution of peak demand (%): 6

50,000 GWh/y Final / Power G

Peak daily demand GWh/d

Bulgaria

250

40,000

225

30,000

200

20,000

175

10,000

0

150

2017

2018

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Final

Power generation

Peak daily demand

Evolution of annual demand (%): 29 Evolution of Final /PowerG (%): 19/50 Evolution of peak demand (%): 55

 5) Demand data refer to TSOs contributions sent to ENTSOG in April 2016 and their projections may have, in some cases, changed until the publication date.  6) Figures 3.11 do not contain information on the demand breakdown between RCI and power generation in Austria as this is not available.

50,000 GWh/y Final / Power G

Peak daily demand GWh/d

Croatia

250

40,000

225

30,000

200

20,000

175

10,000

0

150

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Final

Power generation

Peak daily demand

Evolution of annual demand (%): 26 Evolution of Final /PowerG (%): 14/88 Evolution of peak demand (%): 29

Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026 |

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