ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2017 - 2026 / Southern Corridor / Main Report

Comparing the 2030 PCI reference case, with the three max cases (RU, AZ, LNG) we see that: \\ In the case of the RU max, there is again an important increase in the flows from UA to the central European countries which is visible up to Italy and Germany. There is an impact in the Balkan route as well since the Russian gas now arrives to Greece whereas in the reference case GR was supplying Bulgaria with 95GWh/d. The flows of LNG to Italy are substantially reduced (by almost 90%) while the imports from Algeria and Libya are also affected by to a lesser extent. \\ In the case of AZ max, we see that the flows in central Europe are not affected, while the imports to Greece from Turkey and the exports to Italy and Bulgaria are increased. The balance in Italy is kept thanks to an equal reduction of imports from Algeria and the balance in Bulgaria is kept due to a reverse of the flow to Romania (from import to export of 11GWh/d) \\ In the case of LNG max we still do not have any import to Greece. Imports of LNG to Italy are increased by 33% at the expense of reduced imports from Austria, Algeria and Libya. The effect on the flows from UA to the west also there but less pronounced than in 2020. Interestingly, in all the four 2030 PCI configurations reverse flows from Italy toward Northern Europe via CH are activated, as possible combined effect of the higher gas supply availability for Italy (Eastmed, Poseidon and additional LNG terminals) and the backbone reinforcement of the Italian grid aimed at moving flows from south import toward north (Adriatica line).

Image courtesy of Snam Rete Gas

Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026 |

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