Comparing the 2020 reference case with the three maximum flow cases (RU, AZ, LNG), in 2020, we note that: \\ In the case of the RU max there is an important increase of flows from UA to the central European countries which is visible up to Italy. The impact on the Balkan route is less important, probably due to the small import needs of these markets. We also see that under RU max case the flow from TAP to Italy is tripled – possibly since no AZ gas is spilled over the route – and the LNG im- ports to IT are completely displaced by cheaper gas via pipes. \\ In the case of the AZ max it is interesting to see how the model simulates that the flows to Italy through TAP are increased, while increased flows seem to be firstly attracted by the eastern Balkan region. \\ In the case of the LNG max we see an increase in the LNG flows to Italy, by 22%, but none to Greece remaining (as in the reference case) to zero LNG. However, flows to the IGB are increased under this case. A more important effect is seen in the flows from UA which are reduced, probably because of LNG imports. Flow from CH to IT is doubled, from CZ to SK is increased sevenfold and flow from DE to AT is increased by 30%. As a result the flow from TAP to Italy is reduced to one third of the reference value.
Figure 7.4.13: 2030 PCI Reference
Figure 7.4.14: 2030 PCI RU max
0–80% of capacity 80–99% of capacity 99–100% of capacity 20–40% <20% <40%
0–80% of capacity 80–99% of capacity 99–100% of capacity