Greece In 2017 Greece would face disrupted demand of 6%.
From 2020 onwards Greece would not be affected by Ukrainian disruption due to the expansion of the Revythoussa LNG terminal and commissioning of TAP. Remaining Flexibility in Greece will reach around 20% in 2020 and in 2030.
Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Slovakia These countries would not face disrupted demand, but all of them except Slovakia would be impacted by Ukraine disruption. In Italy Remaining Flexibility would decrease from 35% to 20%. In Slovenia it would decrease significantly, from 22% to 10% due to increase in domestic demand (2017: 47GWh/d, 2020: 60GWh/d, 2030: 66GWh/d) Austria would remain with high flexibility of 80% (100% without UA disruption). Slovakia would not be affected and would maintain a flexibility of 100%. Regarding the flows, in the PCI infrastructure level case, as in the previous case we notice, that the flows in central Europe are reversed, in comparison with the “non- disruption” case. Germany, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Austria supply gas to Austria, Slovakia, Italy and Hungary and Slovenia respectively. Slovakia also contributes to the supply of Ukraine. For this reason the northernmost countries of the Region show comfortable Remaining Flexibilities while the easternmost experience disruptions although at rather moderate rates. The situation is without problems to the Region in 2030, when more infrastructure is available to carry gas to the southern and western part of the Region. In particular, the Eastmed pipeline carries 290GWh/d to Greece which are forwarded to Italy through the Poseidon pipeline, while the increased capacity of TAP is used to carry 326GWh/d to Greece which is equally shared between Bulgaria and Italy while a small quantity is forwarded to FYRoM.
7.3.3 TRANSMED DISRUPTION CASE
The disruption of the supply from Algeria through the Transmed pipeline does not have an impact on the overall Region, since it remains mainly limited to Italy.
126.96.36.199 Remaining Flexibility and Flows in Transmed disruption case
The only country which sees a reduction of its Remaining Flexibility, in comparison with the ”non-disruption” case, is Italy where this value decreases, in 2020, from 37% to 19%. The lack of gas supplied by the Transmed is replaced by other sources available to the Italian system, given that Italy is the country with the higher number of supply options, therefore having a good level of source diversification. In the Low infrastructure case, all other sources to Italy increase their flow (LNG, Libya, Switzerland) and mainly Austria. This more than doubles the flow from Ukraine to Slovakia and almost doubles the flow from Slovakia to Austria. Ukrainian deliveries are also increased to Hungary and Romania. At the same time the flow of LNG to Greece reaches 87% of its maximum capacity and TAP deliveries to Greece reach the maximum capacity of its first phase of development.