ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2017 - 2026 / Southern Corridor / Main Report

In the above graphs we can also see the improvement of the supply situation in the 2030-PCI case, where the additional capacity offered by the PCI project counterbal- ances the increase of demand and the decrease of national production. Further detail is given below, together with the analysis of the flows, for the Low Infrastructure case. In 2017, without any disruption, all supply sources, except for Russian supply, reach their maximum supply potentials. Russian supply is limited by maximum capacities at all entry points. Russian import routes towards Germany and Poland are fully used. In case of UA disruption, only about half of Russian maximum supply potential would be available due to infrastructure limitations therefore   4) . In 2020, the situation is very similar to 2017. Only LNG Greece would not reach its maximum supply potential, as demand in Greece is met from other sources (first year of TAP operation), and further transport from this source to the surrounding countries is not yet possible. Maximum supply potential of TAP in 2020 is 131GWh/d due to the rump-up phase of the Shah Deniz gas field (gradual increase of produc- tion from 2019 to 2022). In 2022 maximum supply potential would increase to 297GWh/d. In 2030, AZ, DZ, LY, NO and LNG sources sources (except for LNG Greece) would be used close to their maximum potential. Utilisation of Russian supply would be again constrained by maximum capacities of Yamal pipeline and Nordstream – only half of Russian maximum supply potential could be used. Italy would contribute to supply the Region with reverse flow to Austria. Flow from Czech Republic via Slovakia will be mainly directed to Ukraine and Hungary. Flow from Slovakia to Austria is very low and represents only a minor share of the total interconnection capacity. This flow pattern does not correspond to the incremental capacities expected to be offered by all of the following projects: Nordstream 2, EUGAL, Capacity4Gas (C4G) – DE/CZ, Capacity4Gas (C4G) – CZ/SK and Capacity increase at IP Lanžhot entry, which are expected to mitigate the impact of a supply disruption through Ukraine. In fact above mentioned projects are not considered in the cases presented in this GRIP report as only Nordstream 2 has a FID status (and is therefore included in the Low infrastructure level) and the other projects do not have a PCI label and are therefore not included in the PCI infrastructure level. These new projects will (if im- plemented) significantly expand the supply and transit route via Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia towards Austria. Consequently, they will increase remaining flexibility in countries with sufficient cross-border capacity. Still, the demand curtailment in South-Eastern Europe caused by infrastructure gaps would not be mitigated by these projects due to restrictions in cross-border capacities.

 4) 2017: Russian maximum supply potential: 5,222 GWh/d, flow, probably equal to max. capacity at all entry points from Russia. Without UA routes maximum supply potential is reduced to: 3,281 GWh/d. In 2020 supply potential reaches 6,338 GWh/d and flow: 3,355GWh/d.

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026