ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2017 - 2026 / Southern Corridor / Main Report

As expected, the Remaining Flexibility is reduced from 2020 to 2030 under the same infrastructure level due to increasing demand and decreasing national pro- duction. It is also increasing, for the same year, with the increase of infrastructure level. This effect, is more important in 2030 because most of the PCI projects are expected to be commissioned after 2020. The major improvements in 2020 PCI case are seen in Greece (due to the commissioning of the TAP pipeline) and in Slovenia. In 2030 Low case, Croatia experiences a substantial Disruption Rate. This is reversed in the 2030 PCI case where the Remaining Flexibility becomes positive again (due to the commissioning of the Krk LNG facility) Regarding flows we see that in the non-disruption cases there is no stress on the infrastructure. This was expected, for two reasons, the adequacy of the Region’s infrastructure under normal operating conditions and the fact that the non-disruption results have been provided for the Average Winter day case. Comparing the 2030 cases with the 2020 ones in the Low infrastructure scenario, we see an increase in some flows at existing or FID infrastructure. The same­ comparison in the PCI infrastructure scenario more changes are evident due to the existence of new infrastructure: \\ Flow from the eastern Mediterranean fields to Greece the East Med pipeline and further west to Italy, via the Poseidon pipeline. \\ Flow via GALSI pipeline \\ Flow from Italy to Malta \\ Flow from CZ to Austria \\ Flow from Turkey to Bulgaria via the Eastring and the ITB projects . \\ LNG imports to Croatia The UA disruption case is the one that has most important consequences on the gas supply of the SC Region as well as further west, for this reason this is presented in more detail in this paragraph, including an analysis per country or group of countries, especially for the Low infrastructure level which puts the Region’s gas transmission system under higher stress. Transit routes from Ukraine have a total capacity of approx. 4,000 GWh/d. A complete halt of gas supply via all Ukrainian routes can only be caused by non-tech- nical disruption. For a peak day, the disruption of transit through Ukraine cannot be completely replaced by other routes and would result in a demand curtailment in South-Eastern Europe. The situation in South-Eastern Europe would improve from 2017 to 2020 and even more in 2030 following the commissioning of the following projects with FID status, included in the Low infrastructure level. 1. Revythoussa LNG terminal – 2 nd upgrade (capacity increase from 150GWh/d to 230GWh/d, commissioning: 2018) 2. Interconnection Bulgaria–Serbia (with bidirectional capacity of 51GWh/d, commissioning: 2018) 3. a. Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) (capacity at IP Kipi: 350GWh/d, commissioning: 2020) b. TAP interconnection in Italy (capacity: 350GWh/d, commissioning: 2020) 4. Interconnector Greece–Bulgaria (IGB project) (capacity: 90GWh/d, commissioning: 2018, increased in 2022 to 142GWh/d ) 5. Expansion of the interconnection Slovenia–Croatia from 53GWh/d to 68GWh/d, commissioning: 2019)

7.3.2 UKRAINE DISRUPTION

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026