ENTSOG GRIP SNC 2014-2023

8.4.3 CASE STUDY 3:

SOUTH-NORTH FLOW (LNG MINIMIZATION)

When LNG deliveries to Europe fall to a minimum and at the same time North West Europe is facing heavy winter conditions, one of the main concerned coun- tries could be France due to its high LNG dependence. To cover peak demand more gas could be sourced from Italy through Switzerland, on top of an increased inflow from Russian gas through Germany and Belgium

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100

121 179

CASE DESCRIPTION Year 2018 Demand

Max Winter Day North West Europe Average Winter Day rest of Europe

Supply

Minimization LNG

Infrastructure

FID + non-FID

Figure 8.10: Case study 3: South-North Flow (LNG minimization)

8.4.4 ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

Although no explicit results have been produced as outputs from the ENTSOG Network Modelling tool, a more intense utilization of SNC infrastructures in reverse flow, in terms of exploitation of both its branch- es in the South to North directions, can be considered as a concrete possibility in the medium-term, as from 2018 onward. These results could emerge from likely revisions of model inputs since an update of the underlying data- set and/or to the hypothesis used in the simulations seems reasonable to reflect: \\ a higher export potential for Italy, determined by decreasing or stable internal yearly consumption requirements, accompanied with an increase of imports (TAP and LNGs plants) and storage ca- pacities of the country; \\ increased import needs for Northern Europe, linked to a progressive decline of North Sea and Dutch indigenous productions. 1) The progressive reduction of North Sea production, particularly the ones linked to L gas fields, will have particularly relevant effects on the future imports needs of Germany.

Figure 8.11: Additional Considerations

1) With particular reference to the decline of North Sea indigenous productions and the effects on supply of Northern European countries, we refer to:

• OECD/IEA publication “Energy Policies of IEA Countries – The Netherlands – 2014 Review” which concludes that the pace of decline of L gas production could be faster than expected in case of further production reductions in the Groningen area and that “as a result, the Netherlands is expected to shift from a net exporter to a net importer of gas around 2025”. • North-West GRIP 2013 – 2022, section 2.4 “The L-Gas Market in North West Europe”, clearly showing a steep decline of L gas reserves in Germany and production in the Netherlands.

South-North Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 |

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