ENTSOG GRIP SNC 2014-2023

8.4 Assessment Results

In accordance with results obtained in TYNDP 2013 – 2022, no major capacity issues were detected to face demand under perfect market conditions 1) for the countries that constitute the South-North Corridor Region when European supply is not facing any disruptions. Additional projects can however heavily improve security of supply and market integration under normal market conditions. As for the considered disruption scenarios, the biggest impact in Europe occurs when considering a problem with Russian supplies. In this case the maximum winter demand in the CEE Region cannot be met, while SNC capacities could help to bring some more gas from other sources to the impacted countries to relieve the situation. Throughout the simulated scenarios a wide range of different flow patterns through- out Europe in general and through the South-North Corridor in specific are observed. This illustrates the flexible possibilities in the usage of the Corridor infrastructure in the centre of Europe to connect the various markets from north to south or from south to north under diverging conditions and possible combinations of demand and supply cases. Results showing a high utilization rate of the South-North Corridor backbone have been identified. Below, only the most significant examples of such market behaviour are highlighted with a focus on the circumstances leading to these kinds of flow patterns 2) , although it has to be noted that other flow combinations might also be possible to cope with the considered supply and demand profiles, which is always to be considered when looking at results from NeMo simulations.

8.4.1 CASE STUDY 1:

NORTH-SOUTH FLOW

When climatic conditions cause peak winter demand in the south of Europe more gas is needed in Italy when compared to an average winter day. This can be offset through an increased use of storage in a first step. However, when at the same time faced with an Algerian disruption, more gas will need to be imported from the north, implying an increased utilization rate of the north to south capacities of the corridor, the latter with increased flows from France and Germany to Switzerland.

45

175

486 529

CASE DESCRIPTION Year 2018 Demand

Max Winter 14-Day Mediterranean Average Winter 14-Day rest of Europe

Supply

Disruption Algeria

Infrastructure

FID + non-FID

Figure 8.8: Case study 1: North-South Flow

1) ENTSOG network modelling tool assumes one-shipper behaviour without commercial restrictions taking into account only technical capacities. 2) It has to be noted that other flow combinations might also be possible to cope with the considered supply and demand profiles: this is a condition that should always to be considered when looking at results from ENTSOG Network Modelling simulations.

South-North Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 |

95