ENTSOG GRIP SNC 2014-2023

8.2.4 SUPPLY

The same supply approach was followed as for TYNDP 2013–2022 with a histori- cal maximum for pipeline imports (last three years), the use of UGS as a last resort supply, and LNG as a combination of the former two (import component based on historical send-out plus last resort storage function). The following table summarizes the simulation cases developed specifically for GRIPs purposes:

SITUATIONS

PIPE IMPORTS

LNG

UGS

SUPPLY SOURCES

1-DAY DESIGN-CASE OR 1-DAY UNIFORM RISK

Import component is equal to the Average Winter Supply. The remaining send-out is used as last resort Import component is equal to the Average Winter Supply. Additional send-out based on the maximum use of stored LNG

The maximum reached on one day during the last 3 years

Last resort supply

14-DAY UNIFORM RISK

Last resort supply

The highest average of 14 consecutive days during the last 3 years

1-DAY AVERAGE

Not used

Average shares by source of the different supply import sources in the European yearly balance of last 3 years, applied to the required imports. When the supply coming from one source is limited by the intermediate potential supply scenario, the corresponding missing volume is divided between the remaining sources proportionally to their ability to increase their level i.e. how far they are from reaching their own intermediate supply potential scenario. Based on the 1-day average – decreased by source to represent the seasonal swing. The seasonal swing in gas supply has been estimated as the average seasonal swing of the last 3 years for each source. Based on the 1-day average – increased by source to represent the seasonal swing. The seasonal swing in gas supply has been estimated as the average seasonal swing of the last 3 years for each source.

1-DAY AVERAGE SUMMER

The total injected volume for Europe has been de- fined as 80% of the WGV (based on the average use of the last 3 years), and divided by balancing zone proportionally to the injection capacity.

1-DAY AVERAGE WINTER

Average withdrawal equals average injection (country by country) of the average summer.

1-DAY – MIXED CASES

Minimum: Supply by source and route as resulting of the 1-day Average Maximum: As the 1-day Design Case

Min: value in average winter Max: withdraw availability (linked to stock level)

2-WEEK – MIXED CASES

Minimum: Supply by source and route as resulting of the 1-day Average Maximum: As the 14-day Uniform risk

Min: value in average winter Max: withdraw availability (linked to stock level)

Table 8.2: Simulation cases developed specifically for GRIPs purposes

These reference case scenarios will be complemented with some specific disruption scenarios for peak demand situations, namely individual interruptions of specific sources (Algeria or Azerbaijan) or routes (Russian supply through Ukraine or Norwegian supply through Franpipe or Langeled). Supply minimizations and maxi- mizations were also examined through simulations for average demand scenarios.

South-North Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 |

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