ENTSOG GRIP SNC 2014-2023

The following schematic maps visualize the three alternative demand situations using in the modeled cases, in a geographical representation:

North West Region Mediterranean South North Region

Figure 8.1: North West Region under peak demand and rest of Europe under average demand conditions

Figure 8.2: Mediterranean Region under peak demand and rest of Europe under average demand conditions

Figure 8.3: Central Eastern Europe Region under peak demand and rest of Europe under average demand conditions

An attempt has been made to find some numerical evidences 1) about this intuitive, possible correlation between gas demand and geography. Below the preliminary results are reported by considering the months with both the minimum and maxi- mum demand day per country composing each macro-area. The findings described should be considered as indicative signals, to be confirmed by future and/or statis- tically extended analysis. Minimum demand cases have been reported together with historical peaks since anyway relevant to shows a possible demand-geography correlation, although the modeled cases are closer to maximum demand situations. Starting with the geographical area corresponding to NW countries, we can detect a strong concentration (84% of the cases) in August and July as months with the lowest demand and a relevant indication in December and February (71% of the cases) as coldest months.

8

10

14

17

25

37

25

%

%

%

38

38

8

46

34

North-West

Mediterranean

Central Eastern Europe

May

June

July

August

Other months

Figure 8.4: Comparison of the statistical historical (period 2010 – 2012) distribution of minimum demand days per month in the three macro-areas

1) Data are sourced from ENTSOG “System Development maps” 2010 – 2011 – 2012 editions

South-North Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 |

91